Evilom
fe5505343e
- 通过悟空(dws CLI)拉取dc战略问题研究院+创新组两个群的消息(377条) - 提取190个飞书链接、18个文件附件 - 下载HTML/MD/XLSX等报告文件到output/downloaded-files/ - 构建知识图谱(JSON+HTML可视化) - 生成Obsidian知识库(28个页面,7大主题) - 生成花园世界全量汇总报告 - 所有脚本路径改为相对路径,便于迁移
741 lines
28 KiB
HTML
741 lines
28 KiB
HTML
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>手游市场战略研究模型</title>
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/* ── Conclusion box ── */
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color: #fff;
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.conclusion h3 {
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color: #fff; font-size: 18px; margin: 0 0 18px;
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.con-item .reason { font-size: 12px; opacity: .65; margin-top: 4px; }
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/* ── Warning ── */
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.caveat {
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border: 1px solid rgba(255,165,0,.3);
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border-radius: 8px;
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padding: 12px 16px;
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margin-top: 16px;
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font-size: 13px;
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opacity: .8;
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.caveat strong { color: #fcd34d; }
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/* ── Footer ── */
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.footer {
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margin-top: 56px;
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text-align: center;
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font-size: 12px;
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color: #9aa3bf;
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}
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/* ── Responsive ── */
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@media (max-width: 680px) {
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.card-grid, .mech-grid, .conclusion-grid { grid-template-columns: 1fr; }
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.report-header { padding: 32px 24px; }
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.page { padding: 24px 16px 60px; }
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<div class="page">
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<!-- ══ Header ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -->
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<div class="report-header">
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<h1>手游市场战略研究模型 <span class="version-badge">v32</span></h1>
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<p class="subtitle">基于 Agent-Based Simulation 的开发商与发行商策略演化分析 · 仿真周期 30–50 年 · 10,000 家开发商 × 2,000 家发行商</p>
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</div>
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<!-- ══ 1. 研究问题 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -->
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<div class="section">
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<div class="section-title"><div class="icon">?</div>研究问题</div>
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<p style="color:#4a5568;line-height:1.8;">
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在一个存在<strong>学习效应、市场周期、产品类型分化、规模上限、动态分成</strong>的手游市场中，
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开发商应该选择什么产品策略才能在长达 30 年的市场竞争中存活，并为进入者创造最大的期望收益？
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</p>
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<div class="note" style="margin-top:16px;">
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<strong>核心指标：期望年化收益</strong> = 存活率 × 幸存者年化收益。
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这是一个随机进入市场的参与者所能期望的真实年化回报——同时惩罚高淘汰率策略和低收益策略。
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- ══ 2. 市场结构 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -->
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<div class="section">
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<div class="section-title"><div class="icon">🏢</div>市场结构</div>
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<div class="card-grid">
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<div class="card">
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<div class="card-label">开发商</div>
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<div class="card-value">10,000 家</div>
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<div class="card-desc">能力 AP ~ N(50, 20)，截断至 [0, 100]<br>
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稳定性 SD ~ N(20, 10)，截断至 [1, 50]<br>
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初始资金 ~ N(5C, 2.5C)，最低 0.1C<br>
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每年最多开发 1 款产品（固定，不允许并行）</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card">
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<div class="card-label">发行商</div>
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<div class="card-value">2,000 家</div>
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<div class="card-desc">能力加成 pub_ability ~ N(3, 1)，截断至 [1, 5]<br>
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初始资金 ~ N(5C, 2.5C)，最低 0.1C<br>
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并行接单数由资金隐式决定（无硬上限）</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card">
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<div class="card-label">市场进入与退出</div>
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<div class="card-value full">动态补充</div>
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<div class="card-desc">每年破产清算后补充缺口 × 50%，使总数向初始规模均值回归。
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破产后永久退出，进行中的项目继续完成但收益归零。</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card">
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<div class="card-label">破产门槛</div>
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<div class="card-value">资金不足</div>
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<div class="card-desc">
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开发商：无活跃项目 且 资金 < 下一款产品的开发商承担成本<br>
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发行商：无活跃项目 且 资金 < 0.5C</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- ══ 3. 财务模型 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -->
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<div class="section">
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<div class="section-title"><div class="icon">💰</div>财务模型</div>
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<h3>项目周期资金流</h3>
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<table>
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<thead><tr><th>时点</th><th>开发商</th><th>发行商</th></tr></thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>启动时</strong></td>
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<td>扣除 cost × <strong>70%</strong></td>
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<td>扣除 cost × <strong>30%</strong></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>成功完成</strong>（质量 P ≥ Q=80）</td>
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<td>收回 cost×70% + <em>dev_split</em> × profit</td>
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<td>收回 cost×30% + <em>(1−dev_split)</em> × profit</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>失败完成</strong>（P < Q）</td>
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<td>损失 cost×70%（不退还）</td>
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<td>损失 cost×30%（不退还）</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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<div style="margin-top:14px;">
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<span style="font-size:13px;color:#4a5568;">
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利润公式：<code style="background:#f0f3fb;padding:2px 6px;border-radius:4px;">profit = (P − 80) × 0.2 × rev_mult</code>，
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其中 <code style="background:#f0f3fb;padding:2px 6px;border-radius:4px;">P = clip(N(eff_AP, eff_SD) + pub_ability, 0, 100)</code>
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</span>
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</div>
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<h3>产品类型</h3>
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<table>
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<thead><tr><th>类型</th><th>成本</th><th>AP 倍数</th><th>SD 倍数</th><th>特点</th></tr></thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td><span class="tag tag-gray">普通</span></td>
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<td class="num">× 1 C</td><td class="num">× 1.0</td><td class="num">× 1.0</td>
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<td>基准类型</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><span class="tag tag-blue">高投入</span></td>
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<td class="num">× 2 C</td><td class="num">× 1.2</td><td class="num">× 0.7</td>
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<td>高成本、高质量均值、低方差</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><span class="tag tag-orange">低投入</span></td>
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<td class="num">× 0.5 C</td><td class="num">× 0.8</td><td class="num">× 1.5</td>
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<td>低成本、低质量均值、高方差（高风险）</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
|
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</div>
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<!-- ══ 4. 核心机制 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -->
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<div class="section">
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<div class="section-title"><div class="icon">⚙</div>四大核心机制</div>
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<div class="mech-grid">
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<div class="mech-card">
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<h4>① 学习效应 + 遗忘</h4>
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<p>同类型连续开发每年 AP 乘数 +1%；切换类型则乘数重置为 1.0（转型惩罚）。
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每 5 年所有存活开发商的学习增量减半，防止无限复利，均衡稳态约 1.05–1.06×。</p>
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<div class="formula">multiplier ← 1.0 + (multiplier − 1.0) × 0.5 （每5年）</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mech-card">
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<h4>② 市场红利（双层）</h4>
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<p><strong>集中度红利</strong>：占比越低的类型 bonus 越高（上限 2.0×，下限 0.5×），奖励逆势进入。<br>
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<strong>市场趋势冲击</strong>：每 5 年随机切换趋势类型，趋势类型额外 ×1.5。两信号叠乘，方向可能相反。</p>
|
||
<div class="formula">rev_mult = bonus[type] × (1.5 if trend else 1.0)</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mech-card">
|
||
<h4>③ 市场规模上限</h4>
|
||
<p>前 15 年为自由增长期，锁定历史最高年总利润为上限。
|
||
第 16 年起，若当年利润总和超出上限，等比压缩所有成功项目的利润部分（成本回款不受影响）。</p>
|
||
<div class="formula">scale = market_cap / total_revenue （超出时）</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mech-card">
|
||
<h4>④ 动态分成</h4>
|
||
<p>每年根据当前活跃项目的主流产品类型调整利润分成：高投入产品主流时开发商获6:4优势，低投入主流时发行商获6:4优势，均衡时5:5。</p>
|
||
<div class="formula">
|
||
高投入主流 → dev : pub = 6 : 4<br>
|
||
普通主流 → dev : pub = 5 : 5<br>
|
||
低投入主流 → dev : pub = 4 : 6
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="highlight" style="margin-top:20px;">
|
||
<strong>机制互动关键点：</strong>
|
||
专注高投入策略触发 6:4 分成 → 开发商利润增多 → 市场总利润更快超出上限 → 规模上限更早、更猛地压缩后期收益。
|
||
两个机制在高投入策略下形成"给了又收回"的抵消效应。
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ══ 5. 策略选项 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -->
|
||
<div class="section">
|
||
<div class="section-title"><div class="icon">🎯</div>开发商策略选项</div>
|
||
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>策略</th><th>决策频率</th><th>逻辑</th><th>学习乘数</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#4e79a7;"></span><strong>专注普通</strong></td>
|
||
<td>不切换</td>
|
||
<td>始终开发普通产品</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag tag-green">持续积累</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#2a9d8f;"></span><strong>专注高投入</strong></td>
|
||
<td>不切换</td>
|
||
<td>始终开发高投入产品，享受6:4分成</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag tag-green">持续积累</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#f4a261;"></span><strong>专注低投入</strong></td>
|
||
<td>不切换</td>
|
||
<td>低成本高容错，但质量均值低</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag tag-green">持续积累</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#e63946;"></span><strong>追逐红利</strong></td>
|
||
<td>每年</td>
|
||
<td>切换至当年 argmax(集中度红利 × 趋势)，追逐最高 rev_mult</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag tag-red">每年重置</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#ff9800;"></span><strong>跟随周期</strong></td>
|
||
<td>每5年</td>
|
||
<td>仅在市场趋势切换年（每5年）跟随新趋势类型，中间4年稳定积累</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag tag-blue">5年积累后重置</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ══ 6. 仿真结论 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -->
|
||
<div class="section">
|
||
<div class="section-title"><div class="icon">📊</div>仿真结论</div>
|
||
<p style="font-size:13px;color:#6b7a99;margin-bottom:16px;">
|
||
分析场景：开发商 2,000 家 × 发行商 400 家，仿真 30 年，3 个随机种子均值。
|
||
</p>
|
||
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>策略</th>
|
||
<th class="num">dev 存活</th>
|
||
<th class="num">dev 年化</th>
|
||
<th class="num" style="background:#e8f5e9;">dev 期望年化↑</th>
|
||
<th class="num">pub 存活</th>
|
||
<th class="num">pub 年化</th>
|
||
<th class="num" style="background:#e8f5e9;">pub 期望年化↑</th>
|
||
<th>分成主态</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- 跟随周期 winner -->
|
||
<tr class="winner-row">
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#ff9800;"></span><span class="strat-name">跟随周期</span></td>
|
||
<td class="num">18.0%</td>
|
||
<td class="num pos">+4.11%</td>
|
||
<td class="num">
|
||
<div class="bar-wrap">
|
||
<div class="bar" style="width:70px;"></div>
|
||
<span class="bar-val pos">+0.701%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="num">66.6%</td>
|
||
<td class="num pos">+3.61%</td>
|
||
<td class="num">
|
||
<div class="bar-wrap">
|
||
<div class="bar" style="width:100px;background:#16a34a;"></div>
|
||
<span class="bar-val pos">+2.504%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag tag-blue">混合均衡</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- 专注高投入 -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#2a9d8f;"></span><span class="strat-name">专注高投入</span></td>
|
||
<td class="num">24.9%</td>
|
||
<td class="num pos">+2.93%</td>
|
||
<td class="num">
|
||
<div class="bar-wrap">
|
||
<div class="bar" style="width:66px;"></div>
|
||
<span class="bar-val pos">+0.658%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="num">81.1%</td>
|
||
<td class="num neg">−6.68%</td>
|
||
<td class="num">
|
||
<div class="bar-wrap">
|
||
<div class="bar bar-neg" style="width:90px;"></div>
|
||
<span class="bar-val neg">−5.420%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag tag-blue">6:4（96%）</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- 追逐红利 -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#e63946;"></span><span class="strat-name">追逐红利</span></td>
|
||
<td class="num">14.1%</td>
|
||
<td class="num pos">+4.22%<sup>*</sup></td>
|
||
<td class="num">
|
||
<div class="bar-wrap">
|
||
<div class="bar" style="width:59px;"></div>
|
||
<span class="bar-val pos">+0.593%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="num">58.3%</td>
|
||
<td class="num neg">−1.85%</td>
|
||
<td class="num">
|
||
<div class="bar-wrap">
|
||
<div class="bar bar-neg" style="width:18px;"></div>
|
||
<span class="bar-val neg">−1.072%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag tag-gray">混合波动</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- 专注普通 -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#4e79a7;"></span><span class="strat-name">专注普通</span></td>
|
||
<td class="num">15.5%</td>
|
||
<td class="num pos">+3.43%</td>
|
||
<td class="num">
|
||
<div class="bar-wrap">
|
||
<div class="bar" style="width:53px;"></div>
|
||
<span class="bar-val pos">+0.537%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="num">65.3%</td>
|
||
<td class="num neg">−3.15%</td>
|
||
<td class="num">
|
||
<div class="bar-wrap">
|
||
<div class="bar bar-neg" style="width:24px;"></div>
|
||
<span class="bar-val neg">−1.482%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag tag-gray">5:5（100%）</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- 专注低投入 -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#f4a261;"></span><span class="strat-name">专注低投入</span></td>
|
||
<td class="num">28.9%</td>
|
||
<td class="num neu">−0.02%</td>
|
||
<td class="num">
|
||
<div class="bar-wrap">
|
||
<div class="bar bar-neg" style="width:4px;"></div>
|
||
<span class="bar-val neu">−0.006%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="num">93.4%</td>
|
||
<td class="num pos">+2.08%</td>
|
||
<td class="num">
|
||
<div class="bar-wrap">
|
||
<div class="bar" style="width:78px;background:#2563eb;"></div>
|
||
<span class="bar-val pos">+1.950%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag tag-orange">4:6（96%）</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
|
||
<p style="font-size:12px;color:#9aa3bf;margin-top:8px;">
|
||
* 追逐红利的幸存者年化（+4.22%）受聚集型破产导致的幸存者偏差影响虚高；期望年化（+0.593%）为真实效用。
|
||
</p>
|
||
|
||
<h3 style="margin-top:28px;">各策略50年演化轨迹（主场景，seed=42）</h3>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>策略</th>
|
||
<th class="num">年50 开发商AP</th>
|
||
<th class="num">年50 学习乘数</th>
|
||
<th class="num">年50 市场压缩</th>
|
||
<th class="num">幸存者资本</th>
|
||
<th>市场上限首次触发</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="winner-row">
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#ff9800;"></span><strong>跟随周期</strong></td>
|
||
<td class="num">72.1</td>
|
||
<td class="num">1.001</td>
|
||
<td class="num pos">1.000 × <small>（未压缩）</small></td>
|
||
<td class="num"><strong>35.7 C</strong></td>
|
||
<td>第 21 年</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#2a9d8f;"></span>专注高投入</td>
|
||
<td class="num"><strong>85.0</strong></td>
|
||
<td class="num">1.054</td>
|
||
<td class="num neg">0.333 × <small>（打三折）</small></td>
|
||
<td class="num">26.8 C</td>
|
||
<td>第 20 年</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#e63946;"></span>追逐红利</td>
|
||
<td class="num">70.3</td>
|
||
<td class="num">1.000</td>
|
||
<td class="num neg">0.665 ×</td>
|
||
<td class="num">23.4 C</td>
|
||
<td>第 16 年</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#4e79a7;"></span>专注普通</td>
|
||
<td class="num">69.6</td>
|
||
<td class="num">1.045</td>
|
||
<td class="num">0.712 ×</td>
|
||
<td class="num">24.6 C</td>
|
||
<td>第 25 年</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><span class="strat-dot" style="background:#f4a261;"></span>专注低投入</td>
|
||
<td class="num">55.2</td>
|
||
<td class="num">1.048</td>
|
||
<td class="num pos">0.945 ×</td>
|
||
<td class="num">7.4 C</td>
|
||
<td>第 40 年</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ══ 7. 核心发现 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -->
|
||
<div class="section">
|
||
<div class="section-title"><div class="icon">💡</div>核心发现</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="mech-grid" style="margin-bottom:16px;">
|
||
<div class="mech-card" style="border-top-color:#ff9800;">
|
||
<h4>跟随周期：唯一双边共赢策略</h4>
|
||
<p>dev 期望 <strong>+0.701%</strong>，pub 期望 <strong>+2.504%</strong>，两侧均正。
|
||
50 年末幸存者资本 35.7C 为全场最高。
|
||
每5年切换使分成在三档间轮转，平均趋近5:5，规模上限全程近乎不触发。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mech-card" style="border-top-color:#2a9d8f;">
|
||
<h4>专注高投入：开发商个体最优，发行商深亏</h4>
|
||
<p>6:4 分成将 dev 存活率推至 <strong>24.9%</strong>，但同时令市场利润更快超出上限——
|
||
年 50 时收入仅剩 <strong>0.33×</strong>。发行商期望 <strong>−5.42%</strong>，长期无法维持。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mech-card" style="border-top-color:#e63946;">
|
||
<h4>追逐红利：幸存者偏差陷阱</h4>
|
||
<p>幸存者年化（+4.22%）看似最高，实为假象：羊群效应导致聚集型破产，
|
||
批量死亡在均值资本中制造统计跳升。期望年化仅 <strong>+0.593%</strong>，排第三。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mech-card" style="border-top-color:#f4a261;">
|
||
<h4>专注低投入：高存活，但接近零效用</h4>
|
||
<p>dev 存活率最高（28.9%），发行商存活率高达 93.4%。
|
||
然而 dev 期望仅 <strong>−0.006%</strong>，为勉强收支平衡的维持型路线。
|
||
市场规模压制最轻，属保守仓位而非成长策略。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="highlight">
|
||
<strong>机制权衡：</strong>
|
||
专注高投入的"6:4 分成优势"与"规模上限反噬"相互抵消——高投入利润越多，规模上限触发越早越猛，
|
||
反而令50年末幸存者资本（26.8C）低于跟随周期（35.7C）。
|
||
没有一种专一策略能同时绕开这两重约束。
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ══ 8. 策略建议 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -->
|
||
<div class="conclusion">
|
||
<h3>策略建议（以期望年化为主要指标）</h3>
|
||
<div class="conclusion-grid">
|
||
<div class="con-item">
|
||
<div class="goal">双边市场健康（dev + pub）</div>
|
||
<div class="answer">跟随周期</div>
|
||
<div class="reason">唯一双边期望均正，50年末资本最高</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="con-item">
|
||
<div class="goal">最大化开发商 dev 期望收益</div>
|
||
<div class="answer">跟随周期 +0.701%</div>
|
||
<div class="reason">其次专注高投入 +0.658%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="con-item">
|
||
<div class="goal">最大化发行商 pub 期望收益</div>
|
||
<div class="answer">跟随周期 +2.504%</div>
|
||
<div class="reason">其次专注低投入 +1.950%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="con-item">
|
||
<div class="goal">最大化开发商存活率（不计收益）</div>
|
||
<div class="answer">专注低投入 28.9%</div>
|
||
<div class="reason">低破产门槛，但期望收益近零</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="caveat">
|
||
<strong>注意：</strong>
|
||
追逐红利的幸存者年化（+4.22%）并非真实效用——大多数参与者在赚到利润前就已破产（仅14.1%存活）。
|
||
期望年化（+0.593%）才是对随机进入者有意义的指标，追逐红利在此指标下排第三。
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ══ Footer ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -->
|
||
<div class="footer">
|
||
手游市场战略研究模型 v32 · Agent-Based Simulation · simulation.py
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|